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When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

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I have often wondered why people with guns ever obey people without them. And I think we still do not know—at least I do not.” (Przeworski 2011, p. 180)

Abstract

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952–2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.

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Notes

  1. We use the terms “coup” and “coup d’état” interchangeably here. “Military coups” are based on a narrower definition, as the perpetrators would have to include the military.

  2. As Plümper and Neumayer (2015) point out, this standard approach does not deal systematically with model uncertainty regarding distributional assumptions, measurement error processes, and so on. Thus, the results of an EBA can be considered “robust” only in such a narrow sense.

  3. We are aware of three studies of coup determinants that use monthly data: Thyne (2010), Bell (2016), and Johnson and Thyne (2016). Johnson and Thyne report similar findings when using country-day and country-year data. Eventually, they opt for using country-month data to increase precision without unnecessarily reducing standard errors by inflating the number of observations.

  4. Given that resources can be used to protect the incumbent regime from threats, it is very plausible that coups frequently will be unsuccessful (Crespo Cuaresma et al. 2011).

  5. In the literature, linear probability models, logit, and probit models are roughly equally common. Calculation speed, the absence of convergence problems, the ability to include country-fixed effects as well as the possibility of interpreting the resulting coefficients directly strongly favors the linear probability model in our EBA.

  6. Sala-i-Martin (1997) proposes using the integrated likelihood to construct a weighted CDF. However, missing observations for some variables pose a problem. Moreover, Sturm and de Haan (2002) show that the goodness-of-fit measure may not be a good indicator of the probability that a model is the true model and that weights constructed as in Sala-i-Martin (1997) are not invariant to linear transformations of the dependent variable. Hence, changing scales can result in different estimates and conclusions. We therefore employ the unweighted version of the CDF.

  7. This criterion eliminates coups in Argentina (12/1975), Bolivia (05/1981), Congo (08/1968), Haiti (04/1989), Sierra Leone (03/1967), Sudan (12/1966) and Togo (10/1991).

  8. We followed a very similar procedure for the years after 2008, which are not covered by Cheibub et al. (2010). In many cases, we were able to rely on codings by Bormann and Golder (2013).

  9. We run F-tests for the joint significance of the fixed effects. To summarize these tests, we calculate the average p-value of the tests for all regressions run. The results are: 0.218 (regions), 0.170 (decades), 0.544 (months).

  10. The average p-values for the F-tests of the fixed effects are: 0.616 (months) and 0.303 (decades).

  11. The average p-value for the test of joint significance of the three coefficients is 0.089 and the median is 3.4E-06.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank Johann Almeida, Maximilian Gercke, Enisa Halili, and Remon Magdy for excellent research assistance. Helpful comments and suggestions by Mulugeta Bogale, Nehal Brain, Safouene Ghannouchi, Omar Khadhraoui, Xenofon Kontargyris, Ekaterine Lomtatidze, Nada Maamoun, Asma Hadj Mabrouk, Maximillian Mantei, Stephan Michel, Konstantinos Pilpilidis, Todd Sandler, and participants of the 2016 Political Violence and Policy Conference are much appreciated.

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Correspondence to Martin Gassebner.

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Appendix 1

Appendix 1

Variable (group)

Used by

Definition/operationalization

Data source

Democracy-dummy

Bell (2016), Bell and Sudduth (2015), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Girod (2015), Henderson (1997), Hiroi and Omori (2013, 2014), Houle (2016), Johnson and Thyne (2016), Kim (2016), Miller et al. (2016), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Powell (2012), Powell et al. (2016), Thyne (2010), Tusalem (2010), Wobig (2015)

Cheibub et al.-classification, recoded monthly for coup years, 1 = democracy

Cheibub et al. (2010), Bormann and Golder (2013) and own codings

Economic growth

Bell (2016), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Hiroi and Omori (2013), Houle (2016), Jackman et al. (1986), Johnson et al. (1984), Kim (2016), Lehoucq and Pérez-Liñán (2014), Londregan and Poole (1990), Miller et al. (2016), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Powell (2012), Powell et al. (2016), Slater et al. (2014), Thyne (2010), Wells (1974), Wig and Rod (2016), Wobig (2015)

Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita in the previous year

Own calculation based on Feenstra et al. (2015)

Income per capita

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Belkin and Schofer (2003), Bell (2016), Bell and Sudduth (2015), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Galetovic and Sanhueza (2000), Girod (2015), Harkness (2016), Henderson (1997), Hiroi and Omori (2013, 2014), Houle (2016), Johnson and Thyne (2016), Kim (2016), Lehoucq and Pérez-Liñán (2014), Londregan and Poole (1990), Malul and Shoham (2006), Marcum and Brown (2016), Miller et al. (2016), O’Kane (1981, 1993), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Powell (2012), Powell et al. (2016), Slater et al. (2014), Thyne (2010), Tusalem (2010), Wells (1974), Wig and Rod (2016), Wobig (2015)

Log-real GDP per capita

Feenstra et al. (2015)

Previous coup-dummy

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Bove and Rivera (2015), Galetovic and Sanhueza (2000), Henderson (1997), Kim (2016), Londregan and Poole (1990), Lunde (1991), O’Kane (1981, 1993), Rowe (1974), Tusalem (2010), Wang (1998)

Previous coup in this country since 1950 or independence, monthly data

Own calculation based on Powell and Thyne (2011)

Time since coup

Bell and Sudduth (2015), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Houle (2016), Johnson and Thyne (2016), Kim (2016), Lehoucq and Pérez-Liñán (2014), Londregan and Poole (1990), Lunde (1991), Powell (2012), Powell et al. (2016), Slater et al. (2014), Wig and Rod (2016), Wobig (2015)

Linear, quadratic and cubic time trend measured in years, monthly data

Own calculation based on Powell and Thyne (2011)

Absolute latitude

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016)

The absolute value of the latitude of the capital city, divided by 90

La Porta et al. (1999)

Age dependency ratio

Slater et al. (2014)

Ratio of the population older than 64 to the working age population

World Bank (2016)

Aid

Girod (2015), Hiroi and Omori (2014), Rowe (1974), Thyne (2010), Wells (1974)

Net ODA received (share of GNI)

World Bank (2016)

Chief executive military officer-dummy

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Belkin and Schofer (2003), Bell (2016), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Johnson and Thyne (2016), Hiroi and Omori (2013, 2014), Miller et al. (2016), Powell (2012), Thyne (2010), Wobig (2015)

Chief executive is a military officer, 1 = yes

Beck et al. (2001)

Colonial history

Tusalem (2010), Wang (1998)

Dummies for British, French, and no colonial origin

Hadenius and Teorell (2007) via Teorell et al. (2016)

Coup spillover

Lehoucq and Pérez-Liñán (2014), Miller et al. (2016)

Number of coups per country in the same region in the previous year (regions: Eastern Europe and post-Soviet Union, Latin America, MENA, SSA, Western Europe and North America, Asia, and other regions)

Own calculation based on Hadenius and Teorell (2007), Powell and Thyne (2011)

Coup-proofing

Bell and Sudduth (2015), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Houle (2016), Powell (2012)

Effective number of military organizations

Pilster and Böhmelt (2012)

Democracy spillover

Lehoucq and Pérez-Liñán (2014), Miller et al. (2016), Powell et al. (2016), Slater et al. (2014), Wobig (2015)

Share of democratic countries in the same region at the end of the previous year (regions: Eastern Europe and post-Soviet Union, Latin America, MENA, SSA, Western Europe and North America, Asia, and others)

Own calculation based on Hadenius and Teorell (2007), Cheibub et al. (2010)

Economic reform

Casper (2015)

Average level of reform in six economic sectors

Giuliano et al. (2013)

Education

Wells (1974)

Average years of secondary schooling among the population aged 15 and older

Barro and Lee (2013)

Fractionalization

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Bell (2016), Girod (2015), Harkness (2016), Henderson (1997), Houle (2016), Jackman (1978), Johnson et al. (1984), Jenkins and Kposowa (1992), Kposowa and Jenkins (1993), Lunde (1991), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Tusalem (2010)

Ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization

Alesina et al. (2003)

Government consumption

Slater et al. (2014)

Share of government consumption at current PPPs

Feenstra et al. (2015)

IMF program

Casper (2015)

Dummies for IMF program, and World Bank adjustment-project (respectively in effect for over 4 months)

Dreher (2006), Boockmann and Dreher (2003)

Income inequality

Hiroi and Omori (2014), Miller et al. (2016)

Gini index

Solt (2009)

Inflation

Casper (2015)

Inflation as measured by the annual growth rate of the GDP implicit deflator

World Bank (2016)

Island-dummy

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016)

Country is a small island

Spolaore and Wacziarg (2013)

Military expenditure

Kim (2016), Powell et al. (2016), Wang (1998), Wells (1974)

Log-military expenditure

Singer (1988)

Military expenditure growth

Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Powell (2012)

Annual growth rate of military expenditure in the previous year

Own calculation based on Singer (1988)

Military expenditure per personnel

Bell (2016), Bell and Sudduth (2015), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Marcum and Brown (2016), and Powell (2012)

Military expenditure per personnel

Own calculation based on Singer (1988)

Military personnel

Bell and Sudduth (2015), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Bove and Rivera (2015), Kim (2016), Marcum and Brown (2016), Miller et al. (2016), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Powell (2012), Wells (1974)

Log-military personnel

Singer (1988)

Mineral rents

Slater et al. (2014)

Mineral rents (share of GDP)

World Bank (2016)

Natural resources

Girod (2015), Slater et al. (2014)

Total natural resource rents (share of GDP)

World Bank (2016)

Negative growth-dummy

Galetovic and Sanhueza (2000), and Marcum and Brown (2016)

Negative annual growth rate of real GDP per capita

Own calculation based on Feenstra et al. (2015)

Oil exports

Harkness (2016)

Net oil exports value per capita, constant prices

Ross and Mahdavi (2015)

Oil production

Houle (2016), Miller et al. (2016)

Oil production value, constant prices

Ross and Mahdavi (2015)

Political stability (various indicators)

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Bove and Rivera (2015), Casper (2015), Galetovic and Sanhueza (2000), Kim (2016), Maniruzzaman (1992)

Indicators for assassinations, anti-government demonstrations, government crises, guerrilla warfare, purges, riots, and general strikes

Banks and Wilson (2012)

Political stability and absence of violence

Belkin and Schofer (2003), Böhmelt and Pilster (2015), Hiroi and Omori (2013), Houle (2016), Maniruzzaman (1992), Powell (2012), and Thyne (2010)

Worldwide Governance Indicator: Perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and politically-motivated violence

Kaufmann et al. (2011)

Repression

Bove and Rivera (2015)

Political Terror Scale based on US State Department reports

Gibney et al. (2015)

Population density

Girod (2015), and Malul and Shoham (2006)

Population divided by land area

World Bank (2016)

Population growth

Wells (1974)

Annual growth rate of the population size

Own calculation based on Feenstra et al. (2015)

Population size

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Slater et al. (2014), Wells (1974)

Log-population size

Feenstra et al. (2015)

Recent independence

O’Kane (1981)

Country became independent in this or one of the previous five years

Own calculation based on Gleditsch and Ward (1999)

Recent war

Belkin and Schofer (2003)

No war in this year or the previous ten years

Own calculation based on Marshall (2015)

Regime duration

Piplani and Talmadge (2015)

Number of years since the most recent regime change

Marshall et al. (2014)

Security of property Rights

Tusalem (2010)

Index of legal structure and security of property rights

Gwartney et al. (2015)

Size of government

Slater et al. (2014)

Index of size of government (expenditures, taxes and enterprises)

Gwartney et al. (2015)

Trade

Houle (2016), Slater et al. (2014)

Sum of exports and imports of goods and services (share of GDP)

World Bank (2016)

Urbanization

Henderson (1997), Hiroi and Omori (2013), Wells (1974)

Urban population (share of total population)

World Bank (2016)

Violence, conflict, and War

Arbatli and Arbatli (2016), Bell and Sudduth (2015), Casper (2015), Casper and Tyson (2014), Girod (2015), Johnson and Thyne (2016), Kim (2016), Piplani and Talmadge (2015), Thyne (2010), and Wobig (2015)

Magnitude scores for civil violence, civil warfare, ethnic violence, ethnic warfare, international violence, and international warfare; number of interstate armed conflicts, internal armed conflicts, and internationalized internal armed conflict

Marshall (2015), Themnér and Wallensteen (2013)

War spillover

Belkin and Schofer (2003), Miller et al. (2016)

Avg. magnitude of civil, ethnic, and international warfare in the same region in the previous year (regions: Eastern Europe and post-Soviet Union, Latin America, MENA, SSA, Western Europe and North America, Asia, and others)

Own calculation based on Hadenius and Teorell (2007), Marshall (2015)

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Gassebner, M., Gutmann, J. & Voigt, S. When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants. Public Choice 169, 293–313 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0365-0

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